UFC Daily Fantasy Helper: UFC Vegas 37
Combat sports are one of the oldest active sports in the United States to bet on. This was evident in the late 1900s as boxing took the sports world by storm. From Muhammed Ali to Mike Tyson, several stars have been born and Americans across the country have bet on who would win the boxing matches. Nowadays, with boxing much smaller than it was in the 1900s, mixed martial arts have become America’s favorite combat sport.
By far the largest and most successful MMA organization in North America is the Ultimate Fighting Championship, commonly referred to as UFC. The UFC boasts the best mixed martial artists in the world and is featured monthly at wired and paid events. As one of the most unique DFS sweatshirts available, The UFC Daily Fantasy is now live on FanDuel.
numberFire is always the best place to get ready for any UFC card. If you prefer to bet on fights, our betting guide is a great place to find value on the Saturday card. In addition to this introduction, I also delved deeper into the slate of this week’s UFC edition of The Daily Heat Check Fantasy Podcast.
Without further ado, let’s break it down UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann, which takes place on Saturday night at the UFC Apex facilities in Las Vegas.
Arman Tsarukyan ($ 23): While this card doesn’t attract a lot of casual headliner attention, it is a terrific card for the everyday fancy. There are not only several important favorites, but most of them historically score good points in terms of fantasy points. Tsarukyan is the highest paying fighter in the pool behind the safety of being a favorite of the -850 silver line, and he is well worth it in his clash. Christos Giagos is not a bad match for Tsarukyan given the issues Tsarukyan had trying to find a fight at his level, but it is still inferior. Tsarukyan averages 3.50 eliminations per game after 10 eliminations against Matt Frevola, and Giagos’ 50% defense does not inspire him the ability to maintain that position. Even standing up, Tsarukyan has a striking +1.92 success rate, meaning Giagos seems to have very little path to winning this fight other than a miraculous black belt submission.
Montel Jackson ($ 22): Jackson is a successful UFC bantamweight with a 5-2 record, and his peripherals are exceptional as well. Jackson has a better hitting success rate of +2.27 and he’s also averaging 4.15 eliminations per game. Jackson scores points in any category and over several fights in his sample, making his clash with JP Buys bordering on disbelief. Buys has only one official appearance in the UFC, and he’s fought a lot. Buys has been knocked down three times in a knockout loss to Bruno Silva – which is far from Jackson’s resume. Buys’ wife, Cheyanne, was criticism of the remuneration of combatants after her last fight, and maybe that’s why her husband didn’t receive any favors with such a tough showdown. Jackson is rightly a -590 favorite to beat the newcomer, and that could be ugly. Due to Jackson’s advantage, I would rank him ahead of Tsarukyan for MVP.
Other high-wage fighters
Ion Cutelaba ($ 19): If Cutelaba had a higher combat IQ, he could be unstoppable. Cutelaba’s poor decision making had him finished twice by Magomed Ankalaev, and he turned a convincing win into a draw using too much energy at the start against Dustin Jacoby. Still, everything about his peripherals suggests he’s going to start winning a lot of fights. His 3.88 FanDuel points per minute (excluding bonuses) are fourth on this map, but “The Hulk” weighs 205 pounds with elite knockout power. Cutelaba will probably want to fall back on his strong 5.03 strikes per minute against Devin Clark. Clark is a wrestler with just a 48% hitting defense, and he has just 2 knockdowns in 11 career UFC fights. This is the tame match that Cutelaba needs after being severely punished for mistakes against the power of one shot, and he is +105 to deliver own knockout in this fight.
Tony Gravely ($ 19): The volume leader this week is Gravely, which averages 5.05 FanDuel points per minute (excluding bonuses). Gravely is another high-volume bantamweight who has so far beaten opponents in the UFC with his wrestling; he’s racked up 6.11 eliminations per game in three UFC affiliate appearances. Gravely has -210 to defeat Nate Maness, and he’ll likely go under the radar despite his bulk due to an implied probability of just 32.3% of ending his fight sooner. The game isn’t ideal, as Maness made 15 of the 17 takeout attempts he faced in the UFC, but Maness also never faced the near 54% takeout efficiency that Gravely did. displayed. Still, Gravely comes out of a knockout in his last fight and has an overall success rate of +0.90. This may mean that bettors are selling his position in this somewhat short fight.
Pannie Kianzad ($ 13): Kianzad is a poor fantasy favorite to line up, but a great value game when given the chance. Kianzad made a decision in her four UFC wins, but she also recorded 92 important strikes in all of those fights. That capped ceiling isn’t ideal, but the floor and heavy volume are actually welcome with a fighter who isn’t as likely to win straight away. Kianzad’s 5.71 significant strikes per minute with an impressive 49 percent accuracy are leaps and bounds ahead of opponent Raquel Pennington, who recorded just 3.62 significant strikes per minute with 48 percent accuracy. Kianzad’s track record in kickboxing means she’s limited in everything but this dimension of MMA, but while her 78% takedown defense continues to hold up, those limitations aren’t particularly relevant. The dynamic of this fight is probably Pennington – the frontrunner – trying to grab Kianzad against the cage, and therefore the fantastic ceiling of this fight falls if Pennington is successful. The best strategy for tournaments is for Kianzad to win at his lower salary and deliver his consistent scores.
Antonio Arroyo ($ 11): Arroyo is probably the last rung of a solid absolute win bet, unless one feels inclined to knock out a newcomer. Brandon Jenkins ($ 9) with just four days notice. Arroyo had a nightmarish start to his UFC career due to a debilitating weakness – his defense against 32%. With just 0.60 strikeouts per game and a terrible 16% strikeout efficiency, Joaquin Buckley is unlikely to be able to exploit Arroyo’s weakness in this game. Therefore, this striking match is actually between the active middleweight with the highest hitting accuracy with (Arroyo at 70%) and the guy with the lowest rating (Buckley at 38%). Given this maximum possible disparity in efficiency, deploying Arroyo with probably minimal popularity – Buckley is +100 to score a KO – seems like a business worth trying.